This man is rigging the US Economy.
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This man is rigging the US Economy.
"I have asymmetric information. I am the house now. Bet against me if you want."
Institutions are already positioned.
Here's what's happening + how investors should position:
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America is $40 trillion in debt.
It borrows by selling IOUs called Treasury bonds.
The problem: investors want higher and higher interest to keep lending... but higher rates break everything: mortgages, stocks, the government's own bills:
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How bad is it?
Interest on the debt now costs over $1 TRILLION a year. More than the entire military.
And that's in a boom, with stocks at record highs, when deficits should shrink. Ours is 6% of GDP, double pre-COVID.
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Nobody cares until they have to care.
And the Treasury Secretary clearly has to, and his fix?
Use government money to buy back its own bonds, $4B at a time.
Like a company buying its own stock to prop up the price. Fake demand, so rates look lower than they really are:
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The man doing it is no bureaucrat.
Bessent made billions as a trader shorting the British pound and the yen.
"In my old job, I could push a button and trade a billion dollars of yen or euros or bonds."
Now the button is the US government, but here's why it won't work:
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The government controls short-term rates through the Fed.
But long-term rates are set by millions of investors deciding one thing: do we trust America enough to lend to it for 30 years?
Their answer right now? The HIGHEST rates since 2007:
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