Greed just broke 17 - If you're laddering out, it's time for another 20% (3 of 5 steps)

Hey everyone,

Just a heads up, the Shiller PE has broken through 41 and has deviated by 17.04 from its historical trend. This is the second time in history this has occurred, the only other time being the Dot-Com Bubble of the late 1990's, where Greed went as high as 22.08 in April, 1999.

Just before The Great Depression, it deviated 16.89 before the downturn.

If you want to be mathematically Fearful while everyone is Greedy, this is about as close as you're going to get.

Enjoy the exuberance.

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https://social-archiver-api.social-archive.org/media/archives/arc/RMxmHcofjw/media/1.webp

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[deleted] Oct 28, 2025

Think_Reporter_8179 Author Better than ever Oct 28, 2025 1 like

Dick_Wiener Any guesses on what will be the thing that finally drops this market? Bond auction fail, rate hike, poor earnings, black swan? Oct 27, 2025 1 like

Think_Reporter_8179 Author Lack of incredible earnings by the major tech companies. If their earnings aren't truly incredible, it'll all fall. We're at the point where everyone is expecting to fuck a dime, and if it's "just a 9 in a bikini", it will no longer be good enough. My analogies might be dogshit, but I think it gets the point across. Only a 10 will do at this point, or the entire market is going to drop. The AI tech has to sell at levels to make up for the prices people are buying at . So coming back to this after Nvidia earnings what do you think? Theres people who say it’s just going to keep running until there’s competition. I mean shit, China was just caught stealing 100s of Nvidia GPUs by the FBI. If they’re that valuable, and Nvidia is like most of the market, I don’t see how it goes down. Again I have no idea what I’m talking about. Maybe. I think the capital transfer circlejerk has provided enough of a balance sheet pop to give another quarter of runway at least. I don’t think end-user AI revenue is an expectation at this point. Oct 27, 2025 1 like