Strategic Intelligence Briefing: The Rest of the World Is Getting Hit Worst — So FarDay 45 of the Conflict — April 14, 2026 | Preparedness & Politics

Before We Begin: The Blockade Was Tested on Day OneHours before the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) military blockade went live at 10:00 AM Eastern Monday morning, China’s Defense Minister Admiral Dong Jun delivered a message directly to the Trump administration and the US Navy: Chinese vessels will continue transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Beijing has trade and energy agreements with Iran, and it intends to honor them. “Expect others not to meddle in our affairs,” Dong said. “Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and it is open for us.”

That is not diplomatic hedging. That is the defense minister of the world’s second-largest economy telling the world’s largest navy to stand down.

And then China backed it up.

The Rich Starry, a Chinese-owned tanker sanctioned by the US Treasury for its role in Iranian oil trade, initially turned back when it approached the strait as the blockade began. Hours later, it reversed course again and sailed straight through — apparently unchallenged by the 15+ US warships in position. It became the first known ship to transit the strait under the blockade. It was not the last. BBC Verify tracked at least four Iran-linked vessels and three sanctioned ships exiting the strait since the blockade took effect. Another sanctioned tanker, the Elpis, had departed the Iranian port of Bushehr on March 30 and sat anchored in Iranian waters for two weeks before making its move through the waterway today.

Read that again. A ship that loaded at an Iranian port sailed through a US naval blockade of Iranian ports. On Day One.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs called the blockade “dangerous and irresponsible.” Separately, US intelligence reports suggest China may be planning to provide new air-defense weapons to Iran.

Trump responded: “If China does that, China’s going to have big problems.” China’s embassy denied it. If the US intercepts a Chinese vessel, oil prices don’t go to $120. They go somewhere no model has priced.

And China is not acting alone. Russia has been providing Iran with satellite intelligence on American troop positions and warship movements since the war began — intelligence linked to drone strikes that killed US service members in Kuwait.

• •

Step back and look at what’s actually happening. Two of America’s most powerful adversaries — both nuclear-armed — are actively helping Iran sustain a war against the United States. Russia is providing the targeting intelligence. China is providing the navigation technology and now sailing tankers through a US naval blockade while telling the Navy to stand down. Both vetoed a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution to reopen the strait. Both are shielding Iran diplomatically while feeding its war machine.

And the United States is conducting this war largely isolated. The UK refused to join the blockade. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies opposed the war from the beginning. The coalition of the willing is a coalition of one.

This is not just an oil crisis. This is a geopolitical alignment that should be front-page news in every newspaper in the country. I will be publishing a dedicated piece on the full scope of this — what Russia, China, and Iran are building together, what it means for American security, and why the silence around it is dangerous. For now, understand this: the energy crisis hitting your wallet is the economic front of a confrontation between great powers. And the country that started the war is facing it without the allies it spent the last year alienating.

Everything in this post flows from that reality.

What Americans See vs. What the World SeesThroughout this series, I have covered in depth a lot of aspects of the Oil Shock. What I want to focus on right now is giving you the honest truth about how bad this is around the rest of the world, and a preview of what could reach our shores in the future. Buckle up, because as bad as we are hurting at the pumps, the rest of the world is in seriously worse condition.

Americans are paying $4.13 for a gallon of regular gasoline and $5.64 for diesel. That hurts. But it is nowhere close to what the rest of the world is experiencing.

In Germany, gasoline is $8.79 a gallon. In the Netherlands, diesel is $10.15 — nearly double the American price. In the United Kingdom (UK), diesel is $9.35. Across the European Union (EU), the average gallon of diesel costs $8.57, and those numbers are based on data collected on March 30 — before yesterday’s blockade. The real prices right now are higher.

European natural gas tells an even sharper story. The Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), Europe’s benchmark, is trading at roughly $14.50 per million British Thermal Units (BTU). American natural gas trades at roughly $3.50. Europeans are paying four times what Americans pay to heat their homes, run their factories, and generate electricity. And European gas storage is at record lows — 7% in the Netherlands, 22% in Germany. If this crisis drags into fall, Europe faces a winter heating emergency on top of a fuel emergency.

In Asia, the pain is different but just as severe. India is holding gasoline at $4.12 a gallon through government subsidies that absorb the global price shock — but those subsidies have limits, and when they break, the price correction hits all at once. In Cambodia, gasoline is $6.24 a gallon. In the Philippines, it’s $5.75. In Myanmar, fuel prices have more than doubled since the war began. Across lower-middle-income Asian countries, diesel prices have risen an average of 66%.

The United States, shielded by domestic production and distance from the strait, is the least-affected major economy. That will not last. What’s happening overseas is already making its way here through supply chains, food prices, and the gravitational pull of a global economy breaking under the weight of energy costs.

Today, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its April World Economic Outlook. The headline: global growth cut to 3.1% for 2026, down from 3.3% in January and 3.4% before the war. Global inflation revised up to 4.4%. Energy prices projected to rise 21.4% this year. The IMF expects to provide up to $50 billion in emergency financial assistance to affected countries. At least 45 million people face food insecurity as a direct result of this crisis. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva put it plainly: “All roads lead to higher prices and slower growth.” Even in her “most hopeful scenario,” there will be no clean return to how things were before February 28.

• •

Europe: The Three-Week ClockOn April 9, Airports Council International (ACI) Europe sent a letter to the EU Commissioner for Transport warning that if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen “in any significant and stable way within the next three weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU.”

Three weeks from April 9 is the end of April. Right before peak summer travel season.

Europe gets 25-33% of its jet fuel from the Persian Gulf. Jet fuel prices have hit $1,710 per metric tonne — up 130% from a year ago. Italy is already rationing at four airports: Bologna, Milan, Treviso, and Venice. Airlines are being told to adjust how much fuel they take on. Flights are being trimmed. The European aviation industry supports $928 billion in annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 14 million jobs. All of that is now at risk.

Nine EU countries have diesel prices above $8.25 a gallon. EU-wide, diesel has risen 30% and gasoline 14% since the war started — and Spain hit 34%. But those figures only run through March 30. They don’t capture the blockade. The next EU price bulletin publishes tomorrow, and the numbers will be worse.

European gas storage is dangerously depleted. The Netherlands sits at 7% — the lowest level ever recorded. Germany is at 22%, also a record low. These reserves need to be refilled before winter. If they aren’t, Europe faces a heating crisis that could dwarf what happened after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The International Energy Agency (IEA) confirmed today that “demand destruction will spread as scarcity and higher prices persist.” Oil prices posted their largest-ever monthly gain in March “in the wake of the most severe oil supply shock in history.” Those are the IEA’s words, not mine.

Case Study: Ireland — When a Country Hits Its Breaking PointIreland just showed the world what happens when fuel prices cross the threshold a society can absorb.

Starting April 7, farmers, hauliers, and truckers launched a wave of protests that shut the country down for seven straight days. They blockaded Ireland’s only oil refinery at Whitegate in Cork — responsible for 40% of national fuel supply. They shut both sides of O’Connell Street in Dublin. They closed the M50, Dublin’s ring road. They blocked roads to Dublin Airport, forcing passengers to walk to their terminals dragging luggage. Seven major motorways were closed or gridlocked. Over 600 of Ireland’s 1,500 gas stations ran completely dry.

Diesel in Ireland: $9.00 a gallon. Taxes account for 52% of the price. Protesters demanded a diesel cap, carbon tax suspension, and fuel duty relief. The government doubled its aid package from $273 million to roughly $550 million. It wasn’t enough. Sinn Féin is tabling a no-confidence motion in the government this week. Northern Ireland fuel protests are planned for Tuesday at eight locations across the border. The Irish Times called it “the most serious challenge the government has faced since it was formed last year.” For much of the week, it said, the government “floundered.”

Seven days. One country. Population 5 million. And it nearly broke. Now ask yourself what happens when this same pressure hits Germany. Or France. Or Italy. Or a country without a functioning safety net.

Asia: The Invisible CrisisEighty-four percent of all crude oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asia. Japan imports 94% of its crude from the Middle East. China receives 40% of its oil and 30% of its Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) through the strait. The Philippines imports 98% of its oil from the region and was the first country in the world to declare a national energy emergency, on March 24.

In Pakistan, the government imposed a four-day work week, mandated 50% work from home, and closed schools. In Bangladesh, all universities were shut down, shopping centers ordered closed by 6:00 PM, and fuel station robberies escalated into violence — gas station workers have been beaten and killed over fuel. In India, cooking gas shortages are fueling protests and panic-buying. Hotels and restaurants in Mumbai shut down for lack of fuel. Migrant workers are fleeing cities, unable to afford food and cooking gas. India still has more than a dozen ships marooned in the Persian Gulf.

South Korea imposed a fuel price cap for the first time in nearly 30 years. Its president told citizens to “save every drop of fuel.” Myanmar enacted alternate-day driving restrictions as fuel prices more than doubled. Cambodia and Vietnam saw increases of 80-90%.

Case Study: Australia — A Wealthy Nation ExposedAustralia imports 90% of its refined fuel, primarily from Asian refineries that themselves depend on Middle Eastern crude. When the Strait of Hormuz closed, Australia didn’t just feel the price increase. It discovered that its entire fuel system runs on a just-in-time supply chain with almost no buffer.

As of mid-April, roughly 300 service stations are out of diesel nationwide. Rural and regional communities are hit hardest. National reserves sit at 39 days of petrol, 29 days of diesel, and 30 days of jet fuel — far below the IEA-recommended 90 days. Diesel prices have climbed more than 50% in some areas. The government halved fuel excise on April 1, cutting pump prices by roughly $1.00 per gallon at a cost of $2.55 billion.

Farmers are running out of fuel during sowing season — the worst possible timing. The New South Wales Farmers president warned: “We’ve got farmers across the country who have run out, or are running out of fuel, while others are only a week or two away from empty.” Experts now warn that formal fuel rationing — under a never-before-used emergency law called the Liquid Fuels Emergency Act — could become reality within 30 days if disruptions continue. That law would give the energy minister direct control over the fuel market: the power to dictate where fuel goes, how much anyone can buy, and which industries get priority. The government has activated a four-stage national fuel security plan and moved to Level 2: “Keeping Australia Moving.” Level 3 involves targeted demand reduction. Level 4 is rationing.

Australia is a wealthy, developed nation with a strong economy. And it is 30 days from rationing fuel.

The Physical Price: What the Real Economy Is Actually PayingIf you’ve been following this series, you know the distinction. Brent crude futures — what you see on the financial news ticker — are trading at $102 a barrel this morning. But physical crude, the actual price refineries pay for delivered oil, has hit $150 a barrel for some grades. That $48 gap is the largest of the crisis.

Days ago, RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft warned that if Trump backed the blockade with actual boats, “a convergence between the paper and physical markets may soon come.”

The boats are there. As of this morning, more than 15 US warships are enforcing the blockade — an aircraft carrier, guided-missile destroyers, an amphibious assault ship. Croft’s hypothetical is no longer hypothetical. The blockade is live. The convergence she described is now in motion. When futures prices rise to meet physical prices, the pump prices Americans see will reflect $150 oil, not $102 oil.

That math translates directly to your gas station. At current futures-based pricing, gas is $4.13. At physical-based pricing, the math points toward $5.00-5.50 for gasoline and north of $6.50 for diesel. The timing depends on when existing fuel inventories purchased at lower prices cycle through the system. That process is underway but has moved more slowly than initially projected. We are monitoring the weekly price data closely and will update projections as the numbers confirm the trajectory.

Let me pause for one moment. This publication is supported by you, my amazing subscribers. I couldn’t keep up this work without the support of paid memberships. Consider a paid subscription if it’s possible for you. Paid subscribers get access to valuable bonus materials, like the Oil Shock Preparedness Guide I released last week that is a 36 page PDF that includes in depth information on stocking up on the right foods, the right consumer goods, fertilizer for growing food, and how to store backup fuel to make it through this crisis in a more prepared way and how to save money. Upgrade today if you missed it and you can download it. Either way, I am so glad you are here and part of this community.

Subscribe now

The Domino Effect: How the World’s Pain Becomes America’s PainNone of what’s happening in Ireland, Australia, Bangladesh, or the Philippines stays overseas. It reaches American households through three channels.

First, supply chains. European chemical and steel manufacturers have already imposed surcharges of up to 30% to cover surging energy costs. Those costs land on American businesses buying European components, materials, and finished goods. And the reverse is just as damaging: a world breaking under energy prices cannot afford to buy American exports. When foreign consumers and businesses are spending everything they have on fuel and food, they stop buying American products. That means lower corporate earnings, weaker stock markets, and American jobs at risk.

Second, food. The Strait of Hormuz closure cut off 49% of global urea exports and 30% of ammonia — the building blocks of the fertilizer American farmers use to grow crops. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) set a 40-day threshold for structural crop damage from fertilizer disruptions. Day 40 was crossed on April 7. That damage is now locked in. Higher food prices are coming to American grocery stores through fall and winter of 2026 regardless of whether the strait reopens tomorrow. The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) president wrote directly to Trump calling it “a threat to food security and national security.”

Third, instability. Bangladesh fuel station robberies. Indian migrant workers fleeing cities. Irish soldiers deployed against Irish farmers. Australian farmers running dry during sowing season. These are the early indicators of societies under strain. If the crisis persists, the political and economic disruptions in these countries generate the kind of unpredictable shocks — trade restrictions, export bans, currency crises — that ripple into American markets without warning. When enough dominos fall overseas, the shockwave reaches our shores whether we’re watching or not.

The Floor, Not the CeilingEverything in this post describes conditions that existed before yesterday’s blockade went into effect. Before China sailed a sanctioned tanker through it unchallenged. Before the IMF cut global growth and warned of $50 billion in emergency bailouts. Before the three-week jet fuel clock started ticking toward late April.

The American economy entered this crisis already weakening. Fourth quarter 2025 GDP was just revised down to 0.5%. Mortgage defaults climbed to 4.3%, back to pre-pandemic levels. The Federal Reserve is paralyzed between rising inflation and falling growth. And the full physical oil shock has not yet arrived at American gas pumps.

Watch three things this week. First, whether more Chinese vessels challenge the blockade — and whether the US Navy intercepts one. Second, whether the weekly fuel price data shows the acceleration we’re tracking. Third, whether European flight cancellations begin as jet fuel reserves thin out.

Later this week I’m releasing an updated economic probability assessment for where this crisis goes from here. The table we published on March 31 projected a 35-40% chance of systemic crisis if no deal was reached by April 25.

As always, never hesitate to reach out. Send me a message with any questions or if I can help in any way. Stay tuned for the live Q&A session coming soon.

— Jason

Subscribe now

Preparedness & Politics — your home for strategic intelligence and preparedness.

preparednessandpolitics.substack.com

Strategic Intelligence Briefing: The Rest of the World Is Getting Hit Worst — So Far

Day 45 of the Conflict — April 14, 2026 | Preparedness & Politics

Before We Begin: The Blockade Was Tested on Day One

Hours before the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) military blockade went live at 10:00 AM Eastern Monday morning, China’s Defense Minister Admiral Dong Jun delivered a message directly to the Trump administration and the US Navy: Chinese vessels will continue transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Beijing has trade and energy agreements with Iran, and it intends to honor them. “Expect others not to meddle in our affairs,” Dong said. “Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and it is open for us.”

That is not diplomatic hedging. That is the defense minister of the world’s second-largest economy telling the world’s largest navy to stand down.

And then China backed it up.

The Rich Starry, a Chinese-owned tanker sanctioned by the US Treasury for its role in Iranian oil trade, initially turned back when it approached the strait as the blockade began. Hours later, it reversed course again and sailed straight through — apparently unchallenged by the 15+ US warships in position. It became the first known ship to transit the strait under the blockade. It was not the last. BBC Verify tracked at least four Iran-linked vessels and three sanctioned ships exiting the strait since the blockade took effect. Another sanctioned tanker, the Elpis, had departed the Iranian port of Bushehr on March 30 and sat anchored in Iranian waters for two weeks before making its move through the waterway today.

Read that again. A ship that loaded at an Iranian port sailed through a US naval blockade of Iranian ports. On Day One.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs called the blockade “dangerous and irresponsible.” Separately, US intelligence reports suggest China may be planning to provide new air-defense weapons to Iran.

Trump responded: “If China does that, China’s going to have big problems.” China’s embassy denied it. If the US intercepts a Chinese vessel, oil prices don’t go to $120. They go somewhere no model has priced.

And China is not acting alone. Russia has been providing Iran with satellite intelligence on American troop positions and warship movements since the war began — intelligence linked to drone strikes that killed US service members in Kuwait.

Step back and look at what’s actually happening. Two of America’s most powerful adversaries — both nuclear-armed — are actively helping Iran sustain a war against the United States. Russia is providing the targeting intelligence. China is providing the navigation technology and now sailing tankers through a US naval blockade while telling the Navy to stand down. Both vetoed a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution to reopen the strait. Both are shielding Iran diplomatically while feeding its war machine.

And the United States is conducting this war largely isolated. The UK refused to join the blockade. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies opposed the war from the beginning. The coalition of the willing is a coalition of one.

This is not just an oil crisis. This is a geopolitical alignment that should be front-page news in every newspaper in the country. I will be publishing a dedicated piece on the full scope of this — what Russia, China, and Iran are building together, what it means for American security, and why the silence around it is dangerous. For now, understand this: the energy crisis hitting your wallet is the economic front of a confrontation between great powers. And the country that started the war is facing it without the allies it spent the last year alienating.

Everything in this post flows from that reality.

What Americans See vs. What the World Sees

Throughout this series, I have covered in depth a lot of aspects of the Oil Shock. What I want to focus on right now is giving you the honest truth about how bad this is around the rest of the world, and a preview of what could reach our shores in the future. Buckle up, because as bad as we are hurting at the pumps, the rest of the world is in seriously worse condition.

Americans are paying $4.13 for a gallon of regular gasoline and $5.64 for diesel. That hurts. But it is nowhere close to what the rest of the world is experiencing.

In Germany, gasoline is $8.79 a gallon. In the Netherlands, diesel is $10.15 — nearly double the American price. In the United Kingdom (UK), diesel is $9.35. Across the European Union (EU), the average gallon of diesel costs $8.57, and those numbers are based on data collected on March 30 — before yesterday’s blockade. The real prices right now are higher.

European natural gas tells an even sharper story. The Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), Europe’s benchmark, is trading at roughly $14.50 per million British Thermal Units (BTU). American natural gas trades at roughly $3.50. Europeans are paying four times what Americans pay to heat their homes, run their factories, and generate electricity. And European gas storage is at record lows — 7% in the Netherlands, 22% in Germany. If this crisis drags into fall, Europe faces a winter heating emergency on top of a fuel emergency.

In Asia, the pain is different but just as severe. India is holding gasoline at $4.12 a gallon through government subsidies that absorb the global price shock — but those subsidies have limits, and when they break, the price correction hits all at once. In Cambodia, gasoline is $6.24 a gallon. In the Philippines, it’s $5.75. In Myanmar, fuel prices have more than doubled since the war began. Across lower-middle-income Asian countries, diesel prices have risen an average of 66%.

The United States, shielded by domestic production and distance from the strait, is the least-affected major economy. That will not last. What’s happening overseas is already making its way here through supply chains, food prices, and the gravitational pull of a global economy breaking under the weight of energy costs.

Today, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its April World Economic Outlook. The headline: global growth cut to 3.1% for 2026, down from 3.3% in January and 3.4% before the war. Global inflation revised up to 4.4%. Energy prices projected to rise 21.4% this year. The IMF expects to provide up to $50 billion in emergency financial assistance to affected countries. At least 45 million people face food insecurity as a direct result of this crisis. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva put it plainly: “All roads lead to higher prices and slower growth.” Even in her “most hopeful scenario,” there will be no clean return to how things were before February 28.

Europe: The Three-Week Clock

On April 9, Airports Council International (ACI) Europe sent a letter to the EU Commissioner for Transport warning that if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen “in any significant and stable way within the next three weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU.”

Three weeks from April 9 is the end of April. Right before peak summer travel season.

Europe gets 25-33% of its jet fuel from the Persian Gulf. Jet fuel prices have hit $1,710 per metric tonne — up 130% from a year ago. Italy is already rationing at four airports: Bologna, Milan, Treviso, and Venice. Airlines are being told to adjust how much fuel they take on. Flights are being trimmed. The European aviation industry supports $928 billion in annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 14 million jobs. All of that is now at risk.

Nine EU countries have diesel prices above $8.25 a gallon. EU-wide, diesel has risen 30% and gasoline 14% since the war started — and Spain hit 34%. But those figures only run through March 30. They don’t capture the blockade. The next EU price bulletin publishes tomorrow, and the numbers will be worse.

European gas storage is dangerously depleted. The Netherlands sits at 7% — the lowest level ever recorded. Germany is at 22%, also a record low. These reserves need to be refilled before winter. If they aren’t, Europe faces a heating crisis that could dwarf what happened after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The International Energy Agency (IEA) confirmed today that “demand destruction will spread as scarcity and higher prices persist.” Oil prices posted their largest-ever monthly gain in March “in the wake of the most severe oil supply shock in history.” Those are the IEA’s words, not mine.

Case Study: Ireland — When a Country Hits Its Breaking Point

Ireland just showed the world what happens when fuel prices cross the threshold a society can absorb.

Starting April 7, farmers, hauliers, and truckers launched a wave of protests that shut the country down for seven straight days. They blockaded Ireland’s only oil refinery at Whitegate in Cork — responsible for 40% of national fuel supply. They shut both sides of O’Connell Street in Dublin. They closed the M50, Dublin’s ring road. They blocked roads to Dublin Airport, forcing passengers to walk to their terminals dragging luggage. Seven major motorways were closed or gridlocked. Over 600 of Ireland’s 1,500 gas stations ran completely dry.

Diesel in Ireland: $9.00 a gallon. Taxes account for 52% of the price. Protesters demanded a diesel cap, carbon tax suspension, and fuel duty relief. The government doubled its aid package from $273 million to roughly $550 million. It wasn’t enough. Sinn Féin is tabling a no-confidence motion in the government this week. Northern Ireland fuel protests are planned for Tuesday at eight locations across the border. The Irish Times called it “the most serious challenge the government has faced since it was formed last year.” For much of the week, it said, the government “floundered.”

Seven days. One country. Population 5 million. And it nearly broke. Now ask yourself what happens when this same pressure hits Germany. Or France. Or Italy. Or a country without a functioning safety net.

Asia: The Invisible Crisis

Eighty-four percent of all crude oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asia. Japan imports 94% of its crude from the Middle East. China receives 40% of its oil and 30% of its Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) through the strait. The Philippines imports 98% of its oil from the region and was the first country in the world to declare a national energy emergency, on March 24.

In Pakistan, the government imposed a four-day work week, mandated 50% work from home, and closed schools. In Bangladesh, all universities were shut down, shopping centers ordered closed by 6:00 PM, and fuel station robberies escalated into violence — gas station workers have been beaten and killed over fuel. In India, cooking gas shortages are fueling protests and panic-buying. Hotels and restaurants in Mumbai shut down for lack of fuel. Migrant workers are fleeing cities, unable to afford food and cooking gas. India still has more than a dozen ships marooned in the Persian Gulf.

South Korea imposed a fuel price cap for the first time in nearly 30 years. Its president told citizens to “save every drop of fuel.” Myanmar enacted alternate-day driving restrictions as fuel prices more than doubled. Cambodia and Vietnam saw increases of 80-90%.

Case Study: Australia — A Wealthy Nation Exposed

Australia imports 90% of its refined fuel, primarily from Asian refineries that themselves depend on Middle Eastern crude. When the Strait of Hormuz closed, Australia didn’t just feel the price increase. It discovered that its entire fuel system runs on a just-in-time supply chain with almost no buffer.

As of mid-April, roughly 300 service stations are out of diesel nationwide. Rural and regional communities are hit hardest. National reserves sit at 39 days of petrol, 29 days of diesel, and 30 days of jet fuel — far below the IEA-recommended 90 days. Diesel prices have climbed more than 50% in some areas. The government halved fuel excise on April 1, cutting pump prices by roughly $1.00 per gallon at a cost of $2.55 billion.

Farmers are running out of fuel during sowing season — the worst possible timing. The New South Wales Farmers president warned: “We’ve got farmers across the country who have run out, or are running out of fuel, while others are only a week or two away from empty.” Experts now warn that formal fuel rationing — under a never-before-used emergency law called the Liquid Fuels Emergency Act — could become reality within 30 days if disruptions continue. That law would give the energy minister direct control over the fuel market: the power to dictate where fuel goes, how much anyone can buy, and which industries get priority. The government has activated a four-stage national fuel security plan and moved to Level 2: “Keeping Australia Moving.” Level 3 involves targeted demand reduction. Level 4 is rationing.

Australia is a wealthy, developed nation with a strong economy. And it is 30 days from rationing fuel.

The Physical Price: What the Real Economy Is Actually Paying

If you’ve been following this series, you know the distinction. Brent crude futures — what you see on the financial news ticker — are trading at $102 a barrel this morning. But physical crude, the actual price refineries pay for delivered oil, has hit $150 a barrel for some grades. That $48 gap is the largest of the crisis.

Days ago, RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft warned that if Trump backed the blockade with actual boats, “a convergence between the paper and physical markets may soon come.”

The boats are there. As of this morning, more than 15 US warships are enforcing the blockade — an aircraft carrier, guided-missile destroyers, an amphibious assault ship. Croft’s hypothetical is no longer hypothetical. The blockade is live. The convergence she described is now in motion. When futures prices rise to meet physical prices, the pump prices Americans see will reflect $150 oil, not $102 oil.

That math translates directly to your gas station. At current futures-based pricing, gas is $4.13. At physical-based pricing, the math points toward $5.00-5.50 for gasoline and north of $6.50 for diesel. The timing depends on when existing fuel inventories purchased at lower prices cycle through the system. That process is underway but has moved more slowly than initially projected. We are monitoring the weekly price data closely and will update projections as the numbers confirm the trajectory.

Let me pause for one moment. This publication is supported by you, my amazing subscribers. I couldn’t keep up this work without the support of paid memberships. Consider a paid subscription if it’s possible for you. Paid subscribers get access to valuable bonus materials, like the Oil Shock Preparedness Guide I released last week that is a 36 page PDF that includes in depth information on stocking up on the right foods, the right consumer goods, fertilizer for growing food, and how to store backup fuel to make it through this crisis in a more prepared way and how to save money. Upgrade today if you missed it and you can download it. Either way, I am so glad you are here and part of this community.

Subscribe now

The Domino Effect: How the World’s Pain Becomes America’s Pain

None of what’s happening in Ireland, Australia, Bangladesh, or the Philippines stays overseas. It reaches American households through three channels.

First, supply chains. European chemical and steel manufacturers have already imposed surcharges of up to 30% to cover surging energy costs. Those costs land on American businesses buying European components, materials, and finished goods. And the reverse is just as damaging: a world breaking under energy prices cannot afford to buy American exports. When foreign consumers and businesses are spending everything they have on fuel and food, they stop buying American products. That means lower corporate earnings, weaker stock markets, and American jobs at risk.

Second, food. The Strait of Hormuz closure cut off 49% of global urea exports and 30% of ammonia — the building blocks of the fertilizer American farmers use to grow crops. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) set a 40-day threshold for structural crop damage from fertilizer disruptions. Day 40 was crossed on April 7. That damage is now locked in. Higher food prices are coming to American grocery stores through fall and winter of 2026 regardless of whether the strait reopens tomorrow. The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) president wrote directly to Trump calling it “a threat to food security and national security.”

Third, instability. Bangladesh fuel station robberies. Indian migrant workers fleeing cities. Irish soldiers deployed against Irish farmers. Australian farmers running dry during sowing season. These are the early indicators of societies under strain. If the crisis persists, the political and economic disruptions in these countries generate the kind of unpredictable shocks — trade restrictions, export bans, currency crises — that ripple into American markets without warning. When enough dominos fall overseas, the shockwave reaches our shores whether we’re watching or not.

The Floor, Not the Ceiling

Everything in this post describes conditions that existed before yesterday’s blockade went into effect. Before China sailed a sanctioned tanker through it unchallenged. Before the IMF cut global growth and warned of $50 billion in emergency bailouts. Before the three-week jet fuel clock started ticking toward late April.

The American economy entered this crisis already weakening. Fourth quarter 2025 GDP was just revised down to 0.5%. Mortgage defaults climbed to 4.3%, back to pre-pandemic levels. The Federal Reserve is paralyzed between rising inflation and falling growth. And the full physical oil shock has not yet arrived at American gas pumps.

Watch three things this week. First, whether more Chinese vessels challenge the blockade — and whether the US Navy intercepts one. Second, whether the weekly fuel price data shows the acceleration we’re tracking. Third, whether European flight cancellations begin as jet fuel reserves thin out.

Later this week I’m releasing an updated economic probability assessment for where this crisis goes from here. The table we published on March 31 projected a 35-40% chance of systemic crisis if no deal was reached by April 25.

As always, never hesitate to reach out. Send me a message with any questions or if I can help in any way. Stay tuned for the live Q&A session coming soon.

— Jason

Subscribe now

Preparedness & Politics — your home for strategic intelligence and preparedness.

preparednessandpolitics.substack.com